I am at the age where “snipers alley” is highly relevant. For those who don’t know the metaphor, it captures the risk of sudden, unexpected death from ages 50 to 70, typically from a fatal heart attack or undiagnosed cancer. If you can get through “snipers alley” in good shape you could well live into your 90’s. And beyond age 70 the frequency of death becomes more common.
Why we ignore future health risks?
Personally, I don’t agree with expression “snipers alley”, as it conveys an unpredictable danger that can strike anyone equally suddenly, to replicate how snipers might operate in war zones. However, outside of a fatal accident, almost all causes of sudden death have developed slowly over 30 plus years and many are in our control.
Whilst the timing may be unpredictable and sudden, the event is actually, to use an expression from the longevity evangelist Peter Attia, a “slow death”. Invariably it is due to preventable lifestyle related diseases and neurodegenerative conditions, or a failure to attend regular screenings. The sudden event is effectively triggered following years of undetected gradual decline in health through incremental increases in cholesterol, blood pressure, HbA1C causing diabetes and many other slowly damaging conditions.
A friend once said to me if you knew that tomorrow you’d have a fatal heart attack what would you do. Of course, at that stage, I’d check myself into a hospital and request a battery of tests and monitors. But if the event would be 5 to 10 years in the future, would you change your behaviours? I’d like to think the answer was yes, but how seriously do we consider future health risks?
Behavioural scientists have a term risk aversion, which expresses the fact that people hate to lose something they have, typically money, significantly more than gaining the same thing. They have determined that the risk of loss is twice as great as the opportunity to gain. So, if we had £100, we’d need an opportunity to win at least £200 before we’d even consider the risk.
When it comes to health, the risk aversion just doesn’t seem to be enough to change behaviour. This may be due to two other factors, the first is the time delay and the second is the immediacy of feedback. The longer the delay between a pleasurable activity, or just maintaining the status quo and the harmful consequence, the more muted is our risk aversion. This can only be countered with immediate and effective feedback. For example, if we suffered a sharp pain whenever we ate too much or sat for too long, we may just do something. Otherwise, the feedback may be 20+ years away and that just doesn’t work.
A “slow death” is part of ageing and the best lane to be in is the slowest. Unfortunately, with few exceptions, we are all in a faster lane, due to a lack of exercise, poor nutrition, too little sleep, unnecessary stress or a failure to have regular medical check-ups. For many, they’re heading to a cliff edge, or to “snipers alley” unprotected. This event could be 5 to 10 years away, so there’s time to change course. We need risk aversion feedback to be shouting, slow down, pull-over, change course.
How to Enter “Snipers Alley” With Protection?
With advances in medical science and technology, we can now both monitor and improve our health to try to prevent diseases long before they manifest. This is both about improved diagnostics and optimising our lifestyle, diet, sleep and mental health.
If we had both, then it would be like entering “snipers alley” with binoculars to spot the rifle before we were the target or having a bullet proof vest should the gun fire.
Another aspect of “snipers alley” is that not only do we enter it unprotected, but we also expose our partner and friends. This is because of conformity bias, or the strong correlation between the lifestyles of an individual and their partners and close friends. Ideally you should choose friends who best represent how you want to be, as they can then motivate and encourage you to get there. Alternatively, if you want your loved one to be best protected in “snipers alley”, then take evasive actions to encourage your partner or friends to do the same. It takes just one person to create a community effect.
In summary, “snipers alley” is a myth, as we enter it having had 20 to 30 years to determine how well protected we are. Whilst risk aversion should ensure we are better protected, the feedback delay is too long to impact on our behaviour. Ideally, we need a device that shocks us whenever our lifestyle strays too far into the danger zone, or we miss an important health screening. Alternatively, if we are selfless, we should take actions to influence our partner and friends to follow suit.
At Autum we can measure your biological age with our LifeScore. We can also help you select a plan to lower this. Why not get your partner and friends to use this as well. How similar are your biological ages?
Download the Autum app (Android or IoS) to try our biological age calculator and find inspiring activities and content to help you begin your journey.
Photo by Sven Mieke on Unsplash
A passionate entrepreneur who has spent years calculating life risks and has set up two successful innovative businesses. He believes with the right motivation and support we can extend healthy life. This is now his calling and has found a great team to make it happen.
